Chance Gates' Blog

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending November 4 rose 10.3%. Refinancing applications increased 12.1%. Purchase volume rose 4.8%.

According to the Federal Reserve, consumer credit debt rose in September by $7.39 billion for a total credit level of $2.452 trillion. Revolving debt, which includes credit cards, fell by $627 million to $789.6 billion. Non-revolving debt, including loans for cars, rose by $8 billion to $1.662 trillion.

Wholesalers decreased their inventories 0.1% to $462 billion in September. This followed a revised 0.3% decline in August. Sales at the wholesale level rose 0.5% to $403.1 billion in September. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 15% higher since September 2010.

The trade deficit decreased to $43.1 billion in September from a revised $44.9 billion in August. Exports rose 1.4% to $180.4 billion. Imports increased 0.3% to $223.5 billion.

Import prices fell 0.6% in October, following a 0.3% increase in September. On a year-over-year basis, import prices are up 11%, led mostly by a sharp rise in fuel prices. Export prices fell 2.1% in October after advancing 0.4% in September. For the year, export prices are up 6.3%.

The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November’s preliminary reading rose to 64.2 from 60.9 in October. It was the third monthly gain in a row for the index.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to 390,000 for the week ending November 5. That’s the lowest level since April. Continuing claims for the week ending October 29 fell by 92,000 to 3.615 million.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on retail sales on November 15 and housing starts on November 17.

Thanks to my friends at prospect mtg.

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As a Reno/Sparks Nevada real estate professional and property manager, I encourage all questions and comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog. Please feel free to use my back door to the MLS and search the houses available in the Reno/Sparks and most Northwest Nevada neighborhoods. I can be reached by email @ chance@ballard-company.com http://www.myspace.com/chancegates .  You can also follow me at http://www.twitter.com/chancegates .  To checkout some of  my property manager services goto http://chancegates.com/property-management-services/

If you are behind on your house payment and looking for a loan modification, go to making homes affordable

If the modification fails, contact your local real estate professional to help short sale your home.  To make sure there is no deficiency judgment a homeowner might find it necessary to hire an attorney.

Last week in review
(June 13 – 17, 2011)

The volatility in Greece, as the country continues to search for some sort of bailout to meet near-term financing needs, has caused some flight to safety buying of U.S. dollar denominated securities like treasuries and mortgage backed securities, upon which home loan rates are based. This helped bonds and home loan rates last week, which was a good thing, since signs of inflation also heated up last week and bonds and home loan rates would have likely worsened on that inflation news.

Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of bonds and home loan rates because inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a bond, which causes home loan rates to rise. And last week, both the Producer Price Index (which measures inflation at the wholesale level) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (which measures inflation at the consumer level) were both reported higher than expected, with the core CPI rising by 0.3%, which was the largest monthly increase in three years. While the Fed continues to say that the increase in inflation is transitory (i.e. short in duration, temporary or not persistent), more signs of inflation in the coming weeks and months could hinder bonds and home loan rates from further improvements.

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As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions and comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog. Please feel free to use my back door to the MLS and search the houses available in the Reno/Sparks and most Northwest Nevada neighborhoods. I can be reached by email @ chance@ballard-company.comhttp://www.myspace.com/chancegates .  You can also follow me at http://www.twitter.com/chancegates .  If you are behind on your house payment and looking for a loan modification, go to making homes affordable For a free copy of my report   “5 Steps For Reno/Sparks Homeowners To Prevent Foreclosures” go to my about page http://chancegates.com/about and ask for more information on preventing foreclosures. or   to request a modification.  If the modification fails, contact your local real estate professional to help short sale your home.  To make sure there is no deficiency judgment a homeowner might find it necessary to hire an attorney.

A major source of objection to a free economy is precisely that group thinks they ought to want. Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself.

And what does reward virtue? You think the communist commissar rewards virtue? You think a Hitler rewards virtue? You think, excuse me, if you’ll pardon me, American presidents reward virtue? Do they choose their appointees on the basis of the virtue of the people appointed or on the basis of their political clout?

Columbus did not seek a new route to the Indies in response to a majority directive.

Concentrated power is not rendered harmless by the good intentions of those who create it.

Every friend of freedom must be as revolted as I am by the prospect of turning the United States into an armed camp, by the vision of jails filled with casual drug users and of an army of enforcers empowered to invade the liberty of citizens on slight evidence.

Governments never learn. Only people learn.

Hell hath no fury like a bureaucrat scorned.

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions and comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog. Please feel free to use my back door to the MLS and search the houses available in the Reno/Sparks and most Northwest Nevada neighborhoods. I can be reached by email @ chance@ballard-company.com or  http://www.myspace.com/chancegates .  You can also follow me at http://www.twitter.com/chancegates .  If you are behind on your house payment and looking for a loan modification, go to making homes affordable to request a modification.  If the modification fails, contact your local real estate professional to help short sale your home.  To make sure there is no deficiency judgment a homeowner might find it necessary to hire an attorney. For a free copy of my blog titled  “5 Steps For Reno/Sparks Homeowners To Prevent Foreclosures” go to my about page

Image via CrunchBase

RISMEDIA, November 9, 2010–Mortgage rates revisited record lows this week, with the average rate on the benchmark conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate returning to 4.42 percent, according to Bankrate.com’s weekly national survey. The average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.37 discount and origination points.

To see mortgage rates in your area, go to http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/mortgages/.

The average 15-year fixed mortgage hit a new low of 3.81 percent, and the larger jumbo 30-year fixed rate did as well, sinking to 5.04 percent. Adjustable rate mortgages were mostly lower, with the average 5-year ARM falling to 3.57 percent and the average 7-year ARM retreating to 3.87 percent.

Mortgage rates fell back into record low territory this week. The Federal Reserve has announced another injection of $600 billion over the next 8 months, but it remains to be seen if this is enough to push Treasury yields and mortgage rates lower, and if so, by how much. Even if the Fed is successful in pushing rates lower, it doesn’t alter the fact that many would-be borrowers are upside-down, living on a reduced income, or concerned about a lack of job security.

The last time mortgage rates were above 6 percent was Nov. 2008. At that time, the average rate was 6.33 percent, meaning a $200,000 loan would have carried a monthly payment of $1,241.86. With the average rate now 4.42 percent, the monthly payment for the same size loan would be $1,003.89, a savings of $238 per month for a homeowner refinancing now.

SURVEY RESULTS

• 30-year fixed: 4.42% — down from 4.51% last week (avg. points: 0.37)
• 15-year fixed: 3.81% — down from 3.90% last week (avg. points: 0.28)
• 5/1 ARM: 3.57% — down from 3.67% last week (avg. points: 0.34)

Bankrate’s national weekly mortgage survey is conducted each Wednesday from data provided by the top 10 banks and thrifts in the top 10 markets.

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions and comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog. Please feel free to use my back door to the MLS and search the houses available in the Reno/Sparks and most Northwest Nevada neighborhoods. I can be reached by email @ chance@ballard-company.com or  http://www.myspace.com/chancegates .  You can also follow me at http://www.twitter.com/chancegates .  If you are behind on your house payment and looking for a loan modification, go to making homes affordable to request a modification.  If the modification fails, contact your local real estate professional to help short sale your home.  To make sure there is no deficiency judgment a homeowner might find it necessary to hire an attorney. For a free copy of my blog titled  “5 Steps For Reno/Sparks Homeowners To Prevent Foreclosures” go to my about page http://chancegates.com/about and ask for more information on preventing foreclosures.

RISMEDIA, March 24, 2010—Buying a home is one of the biggest decisions an individual can make. So it’s understandable that one considering a home purchase may take their time to avoid rushing into such a large financial commitment. However, several factors might leave prospective home buyers who don’t purchase a property now wishing they had taken action sooner.

“Current market conditions have created a perfect storm of sorts that has made it an ideal time to purchase for first-time and trade-up buyers alike,” said James M. Weichert, president and founder of Weichert, Realtors. “Those who have the means and the desire to buy now but don’t, aren’t likely to see such a great opportunity again anytime soon.”

Specifically, Weichert offered three reasons why those who aren’t under contract to purchase a new home by April 30, 2010 might regret it.

1. They won’t receive a sizeable amount of money from Uncle Sam.

For the past two years, the federal government has offered a home buyer tax credit to help stimulate the economy. But that financial incentive is set to expire soon. First-time buyers who aren’t under contract to purchase a home by April 30, 2010 will leave the $8,000 that is available to them through the tax credit on the table. Meanwhile, repeat buyers will miss out on the opportunity to collect up to $6,500 from the government.

2. They might not lock-in on the historically-low interest rates.

Thanks to measures taken by the Federal Reserve including the purchasing of mortgage-backed securities, interest rates have remained historically-low for several years. With the economy beginning to show signs of recovery, it is widely believed that the government will soon put an end to these stimulus efforts.

If that happens, many economists believe we will begin to see a sharp increase in interest rates which could result in a much higher monthly payment for those who wait. For example, an interest rate increase of 1% on a 30-year fixed mortgage of $300,000 could cost a buyer $188 more a month or $67,000 more over the span of the entire loan.

3. They might miss out on record home price affordability.

Home price affordability is at its most optimal level in decades. As a result, those who wait to buy will likely pay more for the home they purchase than what that same home would cost right now. In fact, home prices have already begun to rise slightly in some markets. Instead of getting a better bargain, waiting to buy a home might net buyers a higher purchase price, less appreciation and less house for their buck.

“There is no time to waste for anyone who wants to take advantage of this great buying opportunity. Particularly for those who have a home to sell first,” added Weichert. “If you are prone to saying ‘what if’ and wondering what could have been, you will thank yourself down the road for buying now.”

For more information, visit www.weichert.com.

As a Reno-Sparks real estate consultant I welcome any questions or comments on the Reno-Sparks real estate market or any articles I post.  I can be reached at chance@ballad-company.com

RISMEDIA, March 20, 2010—(MCT)—As the spring real estate season kicks in and the tax credit deadline for sale agreements approaches, the government is ending a program that has kept interest rates low and housing-affordability levels high for months.

On March 31, the Federal Reserve will stop buying mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, returning control of interest rates to private investors.

For months, industry observers have predicted that once government supports are removed, interest rates will rise quickly, pushing many of the first-time buyers critical to housing’s recovery out of the market.

In late summer and fall 2009, lured by fixed 30-year mortgage rates under 5% and the first $8,000 tax credit, which expired Nov. 30, first-timers pushed sales of previously owned homes to the highest levels in at least three years, reducing record inventories and braking price declines.

That tax credit was renewed Nov. 5 and expanded to buyers who had not purchased a property in five years, although the credit for repeat buyers is $6,500. The second credit expires April 30, is unlikely to be renewed, and remains the engine moving buyers.

“Not a single one has expressed concern about interest rates,” said Cheryl Miller of Long & Foster Real Estate in Blue Bell, Pa., acknowledging that “there is, I suppose, a false sense of security regarding rates remaining low.”

As the date for the Fed pullout approaches, analysts now generally agree that an immediate rate spike is no longer the likely result. “We think there will be a significant increase in private demand for mortgage-backed securities to take the place of the Fed,” said David Berson, chief economist at PMI Group in Walnut Creek, Calif. Not enough to offset the Fed’s departure, he said, with rates possibly increasing a quarter of a percentage point, “but a significant one.”

Bankrate.com columnist Holden Lewis said rates are so low now—averaging 4.87% for a 30-year fixed this week—that an increase “is inevitable. But maybe they’ll rise gradually instead of jumping” April 1.

The Fed says it will stop buying “by” March 31 instead of “at” the end of the month, meaning that it likely has reduced its purchases and rates haven’t risen, Lewis said.

Moody’s Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi said rates will “drift” higher in summer and fall, with the half a percentage point the Fed’s action cut working its way back in—mainly because investors believe the government would return if they got too high. For that reason, Philadelphia mortgage broker Fred Glick said, rates won’t change. “If the old buyers don’t come back, the Fed will intercede again to ensure rates during a continued slowly recovering economy will not go so high as to stymie a positive direction,” Glick said. Buyers of these securities “now see that the lenders have instituted rigorous standards to ensure that the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac paper they are buying are very good loans,” he said.

On the other hand, said Holland, Pa.-based economist Joel L. Naroff, low rates are not sustainable, and “the only way to get the market to stand on its own is to get people to become realistic again about prices and rates.” Rates will likely rise, but “the level will still be historically low,” Naroff said.

When rates do rise, likely by year’s end, it won’t be because of the Fed’s action, but “natural macroeconomic forces” like a recovering economy and the high budget deficit, said Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist.

The possibility of renewed Fed intervention will likely prevent rate increases resulting from private investors demanding large risk spreads, said economist Brian Bethune of IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. As a result, Bethune and IHS economist Patrick Newport believe, the rate will be at only 5.25% by the fourth quarter.

Many Fed officials have emphasized that “high unemployment and tame inflation warrant a continued promise to hold rates very low for a long time,” said Peter Buchsbaum, of Arlington Capital Mortgage in Horsham, Pa.

Some analysts expect the expansion to ease, “and I am sure the Fed does not want to extinguish the fragile recovery,” Buchsbaum said.

Treasury bond yields “did not move much after the Fed completed its $300 billion in purchases in November,” said Jerome Scarpello, of Leo Mortgage in Spring House, Pa., “meaning they were able to exit and not disrupt that market.” Rates will rise, he said, but not as high as the one percentage point others predict. “With unemployment high and foreclosures an issue, a significant rate increase can push home prices down,” Scarpello said, “and hamper the slight recovery we now have.”

(c) 2010, The Philadelphia Inquirer.

It is fun to read all the expert opinions on what they think is going to happen.  The question of the day is what do you think will happen to the interest rates when buying a house in the Reno/Sparks real estate market?

As a Reno/Sparks real estate consultant I always welcome any comments or questions on the Reno/Sparks real estate or any of the articles I posted.  You can email me directly at  chance at ballard-company.com

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RISMEDIA, February 26, 2010—(MCT)—Sales of new U.S. homes plunged 11.2% in January 2010 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, the lowest rate on record dating back to 1963, the Commerce Department recently reported.

The third-straight drop in sales on a month-to-month basis was unexpected. “The housing market remains very, very distressed,” wrote Dan Greenhaus, chief economist for Miller Tabak & Co.

“There may have been some weather-related issues playing havoc with the sales data but clearly, these results are extremely unnerving,” wrote Jennifer Lee, an economist for BMO Capital Markets. “There is nothing positive to glean from this report.”

U.S. stock markets fell after release of the report, which coincided with release of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the economy remains fragile and needs low interest rates for an extended period of time.

Data on sales for December 2009 were revised higher to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 348,000, up from 342,000 previously reported.

Sales of new homes are down 6.1% compared with January 2009’s 329,000 units, which was the previous record low. The number of homes for sale rose 0.4% to 234,000 in January. At the January sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell that inventory, up from 8.0 months in December and the highest monthly supply since May.

Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions, and large sampling and other statistical errors. In most months, the government isn’t sure whether sales rose or fell. The standard error in January for instance, was plus or minus 14%. The government says it can take up to five months to establish a statistically significant trend in sales. Over the last five months, sales have been on a 362,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, down from 382,000 in the five-month interval through December.

Sales had risen fairly steadily in the first half of 2009 before plateauing last fall. Seasonally adjusted sales have now fallen three months in a row.

With mortgage rates still very low and prices down, most analysts had concluded that the recent decline in sales was due to the impending expiration of the first-time home buyers’ credit in November.

As it happened, Congress extended the tax credit through June and expanded it to include repeat buyers. But the tax credit didn’t help sales in January. Sales of new homes are recorded once a sales contract is signed, not at closing. Some homes are sold before ground is broken on construction.

Details
Home builders had been slashing their inventory of unsold homes for more than a year to a 38-year low before January’s 1,000 increase. The number of homes for sale that are under construction fell to a record low of 100,000.

Builders have cut back on production of new homes, but they still face headwinds from unsold existing-homes as foreclosures continue to mount up. If a home isn’t sold before it’s finished, it’s taking a record 14.2 months to sell it after completion—a reflection of the mismatch between more expensively priced homes in the inventory and lower-priced homes that have been selling.

The median sales price of a new home sold in January was $203,500, down 2.4% compared with a year earlier. Cheaper homes were selling better than expensive ones: 47% of sales were for less than $200,000, up from 43% in December. Meanwhile, 38% of sales were for $200,000 to $400,000, down from 41% in December.

Sales were down in three of four regions: down 35% in the Northeast, down 12% in the West and down 10% in the South. January’s sales were up 2% in the Midwest, the government’s data showed.

(c) 2010, MarketWatch.com Inc.

Chance Gates does welcome any questions or comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or on any articles that may be posted.  Send your  emails  to  chance at ballard-company.com