Chance Gates' Blog

April 29, 2011 by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist & Senior Vice President, Research · 2

www.realtor.org

The U.S. dollar has been weakening for the past two years and the depreciation could continue for the remainder of the year.  The dollar is weaker not only against the major foreign currencies of the Euro, Pound, and the Yen, but also against the Russian Ruble, Polish Zloty, South Korean Won, Thai Baht, South African Rand, Brazilian Real, and Mexican Peso.

Why?  One key reason is just an unwinding of the strength of the dollar that grew during the 2008/09 financial crisis.  Global financial panic always forces the dollar up as investors search for a safe, reliable haven.  Now with the financial market recovering quite strongly, the ‘panic’ impact on the dollar is no longer in play.  Another reason for the decline in the dollar is a result of the falling confidence that global investors are placing in the U.S. economy.  If you had cash to invest, where would you invest – in a country with strong growth prospects or in a country that could be losing competiveness with the rest of the world?

A final important reason for the dollar decline is that the U.S. has been running up a sizeable trade deficit for quite some time.  Americans buy far more imported foreign products in relation to exporting U.S.-made products abroad.  To help rebalance this persistent trade deficit, the weakening U.S. dollar – in theory – is supposed to help Americans buy fewer foreign products and help sell more American products abroad.  John Deere, as an example, has better prospects to sell tractors to Brazil.  Also, many Americans may reconsider traveling abroad since the dollar doesn’t go as far in other countries (such as forking over $10 for a Big Mac meal in Rome, for instance, with ketchup costing extra).

However, the weakening dollar could actually worsen the trade deficit if Americans keep buying foreign products, but now at a higher price.  Imported oil is one example where Americans are buying out of necessity even at higher prices.

Whichever way one’s take on the desirability or undesirability of the falling dollar goes, one thing is clear as related to the dollar’s impact on real estate.  Right now U.S. real estate is cheap, from the perspective of a foreign buyer, which may mean more international purchases this year.

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As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions and comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog. Please feel free to use my back door to the MLS and search the houses available in the Reno/Sparks and most Northwest Nevada neighborhoods. I can be reached by email @ chance@ballard-company.comhttp://www.myspace.com/chancegates .  You can also follow me at http://www.twitter.com/chancegates .  If you are behind on your house payment and looking for a loan modification, go to making homes affordable For a free copy of my report   “5 Steps For Reno/Sparks Homeowners To Prevent Foreclosures” go to my about page http://chancegates.com/about and ask for more information on preventing foreclosures. or   to request a modification.  If the modification fails, contact your local real estate professional to help short sale your home.  To make sure there is no deficiency judgment a homeowner might find it necessary to hire an attorney.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/01/phs_continue

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Pending home sales improved further in December, marking the fifth gain in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, increased 2.0 percent to 93.7 based on contracts signed in December from a downwardly revised 91.9 in November. The index is 4.2 percent below the 97.8 mark in December 2009. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, credits good affordability conditions and economic improvement. “Modest gains in the labor market and the improving economy are creating a more favorable backdrop for buyers, allowing them to take advantage of excellent housing affordability conditions. Mortgage rates should rise only modestly in the months ahead, so we’ll continue to see a favorable environment for buyers with good credit,” he said “In the past two years, home buyers have been very successful, with super-low loan default rates, partly because of stable home prices during that time. That trend is likely to continue in 2011 as long as there is sufficient demand to absorb inventory,” Yun said. “The latest pending sales gain suggests activity is very close to a sustainable, healthy volume of a mid-5 million total annual home sales. However, sales above 6 million, as occurred during the bubble years, is highly unlikely this year.”

The PHSI in the Northeast increased 1.8 percent to 73.9 in December but is 5.3 percent below December 2009. In the Midwest the index rose 8.0 percent in December to 84.6 but is 5.1 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South jumped 11.5 percent to an index of 101.9 and are 1.7 percent above December 2009. In the West the index fell 13.2 percent to 105.8 and is 10.7 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.

NOTE: Existing-home sales for January will be reported February 23 along with revisions for the past three years, and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be released February 28. Fourth quarter metro area home prices and state home sales will be published February 10; release times are 10:00 a.m. EST.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions and comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog. Please feel free to use my back door to the MLS and search the houses available in the Reno/Sparks and most Northwest Nevada neighborhoods. I can be reached by email @ chance@ballard-company.comhttp://www.myspace.com/chancegates .  You can also follow me at http://www.twitter.com/chancegates .  If you are behind on your house payment and looking for a loan modification, go to making homes affordable For a free copy of my blog titled  “5 Steps For Reno/Sparks Homeowners To Prevent Foreclosures” go to my about page http://chancegates.com/about and ask for more information on preventing foreclosures. or   to request a modification.  If the modification fails, contact your local real estate professional to help short sale your home.  To make sure there is no deficiency judgment a homeowner might find it necessary to hire an attorney.

Existing-home sales rose sharply in December, when sales increased for the fifth time in the past six months, according to the National Association of REALTORS^®.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 12.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in December from an upwardly revised 4.70 million in November, but remain 2.9 percent below the 5.44 million pace in December 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales are on an uptrend. “December was a good finish to 2010, when sales fluctuate more than normal. The pattern over the past six months is clearly showing a recovery,” he said. “The December pace is near the volume we’re expecting for 2011, so the market is getting much closer to an adequate, sustainable level. The recovery will likely continue as job growth gains momentum and rising rents encourage more renters into ownership while exceptional affordability conditions remain.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $168,800 in December, which is 1.0 percent below December 2009. Distressed homes rose to a 36 percent market share in December from 33 percent in November, and 32 percent in December 2009.

“The modest rise in distressed sales, which typically are discounted 10 to 15 percent relative to traditional homes, dampened the median price in December, but the flat price trend continues,” Yun explained.

Inventory Levels
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 4.2 percent to 3.56 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in November.

NAR President Ron Phipps said buyers are responding to very good affordability conditions despite tight mortgage credit. “Historically low mortgage interest rates, stable home prices, and pent-up demand are drawing home buyers into the market,” Phipps said. “Recent home buyers have been successful with very low default rates, given the outstanding performance for loans originated in 2009 and 2010.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.71 percent in December from 4.30 percent in November; the rate was 4.93 percent in December 2009.

Transaction Types
A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 33 percent of homes in December, up from 32 percent in November, but are below a 43 percent share in December 2009.

Investors accounted for 20 percent of transactions in December, up from 19 percent in November and 15 percent in December 2009; the balance of sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales were at 29 percent in December, compared with 31 percent in November, but up from 22 percent a year ago. “All-cash sales have been consistently high at about 30 percent of the market over the past six months,” Yun said.

Single-family home sales jumped 11.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.64 million in December from 4.15 million in November, but are 2.5 percent below the 4.76 million level in December 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $169,300 in December, down 0.2 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales surged 16.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 in December from 550,000 in November, but remain 5.2 percent below the 675,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price was $165,000 in December, which is 7.4 percent below December 2009.

Performance by Region
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 13.0 percent to an annual pace of 870,000 in December but are 5.4 percent below December 2009. The median price in the Northeast was $237,300, which is 1.4 percent below a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 11.0 percent in December to a level of 1.11 million but are 4.3 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $139,700, up 3.3 percent from December 2009.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 10.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.97 million in December but are 2.5 percent below December 2009. The median price in the South was $148,400, unchanged from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West surged 16.7 percent to an annual level of 1.33 million in December but remain 1.5 percent below December 2009. The median price in the West was $204,000, down 5.6 percent from a year ago.

NAR

http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2011012001?OpenDocument

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions and comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog. Please feel free to use my back door to the MLS and search the houses available in the Reno/Sparks and most Northwest Nevada neighborhoods. I can be reached by email @ chance@ballard-company.com or  http://www.myspace.com/chancegates .  You can also follow me at http://www.twitter.com/chancegates .  If you are behind on your house payment and looking for a loan modification, go to making homes affordable to request a modification.  If the modification fails, contact your local real estate professional to help short sale your home.  To make sure there is no deficiency judgment a homeowner might find it necessary to hire an attorney. For a free copy of my blog titled  “5 Steps For Reno/Sparks Homeowners To Prevent Foreclosures” go to my about page http://chancegates.com/about and ask for more information on preventing foreclosures.

Americans overwhelmingly oppose any action by Congress to tamper with the mortgage interest deduction, according to a nationwide survey which supports the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® position that homeownership incentives must be preserved. Nearly 80 percent of respondents said they support retaining federal tax incentives to promote homeownership in a survey commissioned by the National Association of Home Builders. “These results show strong national voter support for keeping the mortgage interest deduction,” said Neil Newhouse, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, a research firm based in Alexandria, Va., which conducted the survey. “Clearly, voters have a very strong connection to the home mortgage interest deduction and are not likely to respond well to efforts to reduce or eliminate it. In fact, voters overwhelmingly say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supported either eliminating or reducing the home mortgage interest deduction,” Newhouse said.

NAHB’s findings bolster efforts by NAR to refocus national attention on the benefits of homeownership. NAR’s Homeownership Matters initiative is dedicated to maintaining taxpayer incentives and challenging misleading reports in the media that are being used to attack long-standing government policies. NAR will host a free webinar on Sept. 28 featuring chief economist Lawrence Yun to provide practitioners and REALTOR® association executives with information on NAR’s initiative.

Even when told that getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction would help ease the federal budget deficit, 72 percent of respondents in the NAHB survey opposed any proposal to abolish the home mortgage interest deduction. This cut across partisan lines and home owner status; 76 percent of Republicans, 75 percent of Independents, and 64 percent of Democrats oppose eliminating the deduction. Meanwhile, 75 percent of home owners and 55 percent of renters also oppose doing away with the home mortgage interest deduction.

Public Opinion Strategies conducted the survey Sept. 9 through 12 to assess the public’s attitude toward the mortgage interest deduction and the importance of homeownership.

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions and comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog. Please feel free to use my back door to the MLS and search the houses available in the Reno/Sparks and most Northwest Nevada neighborhoods. I can be reached by email @ chance@ballard-company.com or  http://www.myspace.com/chancegates .  You can also follow me at http://www.twitter.com/chancegates .  If you are behind on your house payment and looking for a loan modification, go to making homes affordable to request a modification.  If the modification fails, contact your local real estate professional to help short sale your home.  To make sure there is no deficiency judgment a homeowner might find it necessary to hire an attorney. For a free copy of my blog titled  “5 Steps For Reno/Sparks Homeowners To Prevent Foreclosures” go to my about page http://chancegates.com/about and ask for more information on preventing foreclosures.

Sources: NAR, National Association of Home Builders

Pending home sales have increased for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 4.3 percent to 82.3 based on contracts signed in August from a downwardly revised 78.9 in July, but is 20.1 percent below August 2009 when it was 103.0. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the latest data is consistent with a gradual improvement in home sales in upcoming months. “Attractive affordability conditions from very low mortgage interest rates appear to be bringing buyers back to the market,” he said. “However, the pace of a home sales recovery still depends more on job creation and an accompanying rise in consumer confidence.”

Although Yun expects a continuing steady rise in home sales from favorable affordability conditions and some job creation, he cautioned any sudden rise in mortgage rates could slow the recovery. “Current low consumer price inflation has helped keep mortgage interest rates very attractive this year. However, recent rising trends in producer prices at the intermediate and early stages of production, along with very high commodity prices, are raising concerns about future inflation and future mortgage interest rates,” he said. “Higher inflation would mean higher mortgage interest rates. In the meantime, housing affordability is hovering near record highs.”

The PHSI in the Northeast declined 2.9 percent to 60.6 in August and remains 28.8 percent below August 2009. In the Midwest the index rose 2.1 percent in August to 68.0 but is 26.5 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South increased 6.7 percent to an index of 90.8 but are 13.1 percent below August 2009. In the West the index rose 6.4 percent to 101.1 but remains 19.6 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

NOTE: The next Pending Home Sales Index will be released November 5 at 12:30 p.m. EDT from NAR’s 2010 Conference & Expo in New Orleans; a news conference there begins at noon EDT, which also will cover the 2011 housing and economic forecast. Existing-home sales for September will be reported October 25.

NAR’s statistical news release schedule for 2011 is being distributed October 5. Dates for existing-home sales and the pending home sales index are being moved up, and there will be an additional release this year for pending home sales on December 30, 2010.

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions and comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog. Please feel free to use my back door to the MLS and search the houses available in the Reno/Sparks and most Northwest Nevada neighborhoods. I can be reached by email @ chance@ballard-company.com or  http://www.myspace.com/chancegates .  You can also follow me at http://www.twitter.com/chancegates .  If you are behind on your house payment and looking for a loan modification, go to making homes affordable to request a modification.  If the modification fails, contact your local real estate professional to help short sale your home.  To make sure there is no deficiency judgment a homeowner might find it necessary to hire an attorney.

RISMEDIA, April 23, 2010—Buyers responding to the home buyer tax credit and favorable affordability conditions boosted existing-home sales in March 2010, marking the beginning of an expected spring surge, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million units in March from 5.01 million in February, and are 16.1% above the 4.61 million-unit level in March 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said it is encouraging to see a broad home sales recovery in nearly every part of the country, with two important underlying trends. “Sales have been above year-ago levels for nine straight months, and inventory has trended down from year-ago levels for 20 months running,” he said. “The home buyer tax credit has been a resounding success as these underlying trends point to a broad stabilization in home prices. This is preserving perhaps $1 trillion in largely middle class housing wealth that may have been wiped out without the housing stimulus measure.”

Total housing inventory at the end of March rose 1.5% to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 8.5-month supply in February. Raw unsold inventory is 1.8% below a year ago, and is 21.7% below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

“Foreclosures have been feeding into the inventory pipeline at a fairly steady pace and are being absorbed manageably,” Yun said. “In fact, foreclosures are selling quickly, especially in the lower price ranges that are attractive to first-time home buyers.”

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 44% of homes in March, up from 42% in February. Investors accounted for 19% of transactions in March, unchanged from February; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales remain elevated at 27% in March, the same as in February.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $170,700 in March, up 0.4% from March 2009. Distressed homes, typically sold at a 15% discount, accounted for 35% of sales last month – unchanged from February.

“With home values stabilizing, a revival in home buying confidence will likely help the housing market get back on its feet even as the tax credit impact disappears,” Yun said.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said buying conditions are in near-perfect alignment. “Even with tougher loan standards, historically low mortgage interest rates with affordable prices and a sense that the market is turning have created optimal conditions in much of the country,” she said.

“With the fast approaching April 30 deadline to get a contract in place for the tax credit, Realtors are working harder than ever to negotiate transactions, arrange services and complete paperwork,” Golder said. “Because many repeat buyers need to sell their current home first, many will be purchasing later without the tax credit but now have the benefit of a more buoyant housing market.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 4.97% in March from 4.99% in February; the rate was 5.00% in March 2009.

Single-family home sales rose 7.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in March from a level of 4.36 million in February, and are 13.3% above the 4.13 million level a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $170,700 in March, up 0.6% from March 2009.

Single-family median prices rose in 14 out of 20 metropolitan statistical areas reported in March in comparison with a year earlier. Five metro areas experienced double-digit increases, including San Diego, St. Louis and Boston.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 3.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 in March from 650,000 in February, and are 39.3% higher than the 481,000-unit level in March 2009. The median existing condo price was $170,600 in March, which is 0.7% below a year ago.

Northeast
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 6.0% to an annual level of 890,000 in March and are 25.4% higher than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $249,800, up 8.9% from March 2009.

Midwest
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 7.2% in March to a pace of 1.19 million and are 15.5% above March 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $139,300, up 0.2% from a year ago.

South
In the South, existing-home sales increased 7.1% to an annual level of 1.97 million in March and are 13.9% higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $154,800, up 5.2% from March 2009.

West
Existing-home sales in the West rose 6.6% to an annual rate of 1.30 million in March and are 14.0% above March 2009. The median price in the West was $209,400, down 7.9% from a year ago.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org.

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions or comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted.  I can be reached by email at  chance at ballard-company.com or http://www.myspace.com/chancegates

Current homeowners buying a house between Nov. 7, 2009, and April 30 and who have used the home being sold or vacated as a principal residence for five consecutive years within the last eight can qualify for the $6,500. It seems less is known about the repeat buyer credit. This incentive was added when the original $8,000 tax credit for qualified first-time buyers, which expired Nov. 30, was extended.

Houses purchased for $800,000 or less are eligible for repeat buyers. Single buyers with incomes up to $125,000 and married couples up to $225,000 may receive the maximum tax credit for both repeat and first-time purchases. The credit decreases for buyers who earn between $125,000 and $145,000 for single buyers and between $225,000 and $245,000 for home buyers filing jointly. The amount of the tax credit decreases as his/her income approaches the maximum limit. Buyers earning more than the maximum are not eligible for the credit. If a binding written contract to purchase is in effect April 30, the purchaser will have until July 1, 2010 to close.

The 2009 credit for first-timers helped jump-start the sagging home market in the summer and fall, data show. Walt Molony, a National Association of Realtors (NAR) spokesman, said two million existing-home sales in 2009 could be attributed to the $8,000 first-time buyer credit. Although it is too early to measure the credit’s effect on sales so far this year, Molony said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun believes it will add 1.5 million sales to the tally.

The repeat-buyer credit was added to appease builders, who said the original did not offer enough time to purchasers of new houses, which take at least six months to build, to close on them. New homes accounted for only 7% of the tax-credit-based sales, Molony said.

The National Association of Homebuilders’ Donna Reichle said, “We hear builders saying they are getting inquiries, but that’s all so far. According to our economists, it’s way too early,” Reichle said. “If you look back at the passage of the original $8,000 credit and impact on housing starts, it took a couple of months, and that was in the spring as well.”

Moody’s Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi says the credit will boost sales “modestly,” however, by 300,000, with one-third trade-up buyers. “I don’t expect the credit to be extended again,” Zandi said. “Each time it is extended, it becomes less effective and thus more costly.”

David Krieger, senior vice president and general manager of Coldwell Banker Preferred in Philadelphia, says he believes that “a very large increase in our listing inventory in January is a result of the $6,500 credit.” Still, the $8,000 first-time credit remains the chief reason his company’s home sales were 33% higher last month than in January 2009, he said.

Typically, repeat buyers are better off financially than first-timers, so a lot of repeat buyers realize from the start they don’t qualify for the credit, Weichert Realtors agent Alec Schwartz said. “What they do realize, and what is getting more sellers to list, is that they understand that there are plenty of first-time buyers who qualify for the $8,000 credit out there, and they have a much better chance of selling their house and buying a new one than before,” said Schwartz, Liv Mansfield’s agent.

This is also true in the region’s new-home market, said Wayne Norris, regional sales manager for Hanley Wood Market Intelligence. “Builders have experienced increased activity in recent months” attributable to the $6,500 credit and “the fact that many potential buyers were able to sell their houses” to those taking advantage of the first-time buyer credit,” he said. The sense of urgency to make the tax-credit deadline and fears of rising interest rates will push new-home sales higher in the spring, Norris said.

(c) 2010, The Philadelphia Inquirer.

In the Reno/Sparks real estate market, I’m finding most of the  houses being sold for less than $200,000  are getting multiple  offers submitted on the property.

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions or comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted.  I can be reached by email at  chance at ballard-company.com or http://www.myspace.com/chancegates