Chance Gates' Blog

Here’s some good news for the struggling US housing market: Thanks to the European debt crisis, mortgage rates are at historic lows.

The current average rate for a 30 year fixed loan is 4.87 percent, according to Bankrate.com. That’s the lowest rate for the 30 years since Bankrate started keeping track 25 years ago.

Even jumbo loan rates-loans for more than $417,000-have fallen. The 30-year fixed jumbo loan is at an average rate of 4.5 percent, down from nearly 6 percent at this time last year.

“It’s the best time in our generation to buy,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “It may be the best time in any generation. Mortgage rates are so low and with homes prices down and lots of inventory, you couldn’t pick a better time to buy or re-finance.”

Europe’s debt crisis is behind the drop. Nervous investors are flocking to the security of US Treasurys, which pushes down their yield and influences a host of consumer interest rates-including those on mortgages.

The decline is also good news for homeowners looking to refinance, particularly those who owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth.

“There’s a tremendous window on re-financing,” says Greg McBride, chief economist at Bankrate.com. “That’s particularly true for people who can take advantage of the government’s Home Affordability Refinance Program (HARP)-which allows home owners to refinance into low mortgage interest rates even if they’re property value has gone down.”

HARP, which was due to end at the end of this June, now runs through June of 2011.

“Think of the benefits if you buy or refinance now,” says McBride. “Locking in now at the lower rates means more more bang for the buck and more breathing room for homeowners when it comes to payments.”

But the decline in rates probably won’t last long, analysts say. So homeowners need to move fast.

“I think they won’t last much longer than a month or two at the best,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. “I can see them going up to 5.5 percent by the end of June if not sooner.

Read more at http://finance.yahoo.com/

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional; I encourage all questions and comments, on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted in this blog.  I can be reached by email at chance@ballard-company.com

RISMEDIA, April 23, 2010—Buyers responding to the home buyer tax credit and favorable affordability conditions boosted existing-home sales in March 2010, marking the beginning of an expected spring surge, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million units in March from 5.01 million in February, and are 16.1% above the 4.61 million-unit level in March 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said it is encouraging to see a broad home sales recovery in nearly every part of the country, with two important underlying trends. “Sales have been above year-ago levels for nine straight months, and inventory has trended down from year-ago levels for 20 months running,” he said. “The home buyer tax credit has been a resounding success as these underlying trends point to a broad stabilization in home prices. This is preserving perhaps $1 trillion in largely middle class housing wealth that may have been wiped out without the housing stimulus measure.”

Total housing inventory at the end of March rose 1.5% to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 8.5-month supply in February. Raw unsold inventory is 1.8% below a year ago, and is 21.7% below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

“Foreclosures have been feeding into the inventory pipeline at a fairly steady pace and are being absorbed manageably,” Yun said. “In fact, foreclosures are selling quickly, especially in the lower price ranges that are attractive to first-time home buyers.”

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 44% of homes in March, up from 42% in February. Investors accounted for 19% of transactions in March, unchanged from February; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales remain elevated at 27% in March, the same as in February.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $170,700 in March, up 0.4% from March 2009. Distressed homes, typically sold at a 15% discount, accounted for 35% of sales last month – unchanged from February.

“With home values stabilizing, a revival in home buying confidence will likely help the housing market get back on its feet even as the tax credit impact disappears,” Yun said.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said buying conditions are in near-perfect alignment. “Even with tougher loan standards, historically low mortgage interest rates with affordable prices and a sense that the market is turning have created optimal conditions in much of the country,” she said.

“With the fast approaching April 30 deadline to get a contract in place for the tax credit, Realtors are working harder than ever to negotiate transactions, arrange services and complete paperwork,” Golder said. “Because many repeat buyers need to sell their current home first, many will be purchasing later without the tax credit but now have the benefit of a more buoyant housing market.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 4.97% in March from 4.99% in February; the rate was 5.00% in March 2009.

Single-family home sales rose 7.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in March from a level of 4.36 million in February, and are 13.3% above the 4.13 million level a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $170,700 in March, up 0.6% from March 2009.

Single-family median prices rose in 14 out of 20 metropolitan statistical areas reported in March in comparison with a year earlier. Five metro areas experienced double-digit increases, including San Diego, St. Louis and Boston.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 3.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 in March from 650,000 in February, and are 39.3% higher than the 481,000-unit level in March 2009. The median existing condo price was $170,600 in March, which is 0.7% below a year ago.

Northeast
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 6.0% to an annual level of 890,000 in March and are 25.4% higher than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $249,800, up 8.9% from March 2009.

Midwest
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 7.2% in March to a pace of 1.19 million and are 15.5% above March 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $139,300, up 0.2% from a year ago.

South
In the South, existing-home sales increased 7.1% to an annual level of 1.97 million in March and are 13.9% higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $154,800, up 5.2% from March 2009.

West
Existing-home sales in the West rose 6.6% to an annual rate of 1.30 million in March and are 14.0% above March 2009. The median price in the West was $209,400, down 7.9% from a year ago.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org.

As a Reno/Sparks real estate professional, I encourage all questions or comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or any of the articles posted.  I can be reached by email at  chance at ballard-company.com or http://www.myspace.com/chancegates

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The current market presents some of the most favorable conditions for homebuyers in years, particularly for first-time buyers.

Why is everyone nagging you to buy a house these days?

When real-estate values were crashing — prices dropped nearly 33% from the second quarter of 2006 through April 2009 — renting that apartment was darned savvy. And since home values are projected to drift lower in 2010, getting into the market now may seem like financial suicide. But the truth is, even the worst housing slump since the Great Depression can’t remove the long-term benefits of homeownership.

Meanwhile, the combination of lower prices, cheap mortgage rates and a special tax perk from Uncle Sam has produced some of the most favorable conditions for homebuyers in years. And without the need to unload one property to purchase another, first-time homebuyers are in a position of particular strength this year.

Although the real-estate bust wiped out nearly $6 trillion of housing wealth through November 2009, the financial advantages of homeownership remain. “When you own a home, you are slowly but surely building strength in an asset that you can utilize to your great benefit at some point,” says Keith Gumbinger of HSH.com, a publisher of consumer loan information. Homeowners who accumulate enough equity can borrow against the property to put Junior through college, or they can sell it down the road to purchase that retirement bungalow in Boca Raton, Fla. And federal tax breaks make home mortgages less costly than other forms of debt. “It is a long-term forced savings plan,” Gumbinger says.

Meanwhile, the housing meltdown and the federal government’s response have created some compelling reasons to consider jumping into the market this year. First, lower prices make buying more tempting. By late 2005, breezy credit and speculative fervor had pushed the national median home price to median household income ratio — a key measure of real-estate affordability — to more than 2.3, according to Moody’s Economy.com. That’s significantly higher than the 1.9 average for the 15-year period that ended in 2003. But by the third quarter of 2009, plunging prices had dragged the ratio down to 1.67. And although Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, expects an additional 10% decline before prices hit bottom late this year, the likelihood of a sizable drop is much smaller today than several years ago. “The risks to all homeowners are much lower now because house prices are a lot lower,” Zandi says. “You’re not going to see the kind of price declines that are really going to cause you problems.”

Mortgage rates are sitting near all-time lows, with 30-year, fixed mortgage rates falling to an average of 4.88% in November from 6.09% a year earlier. And while they’re likely to increase, rates should remain attractive throughout 2010, experts say. If that’s not enough, Uncle Sam is handing out tax credits worth up to $8,000 for qualified first-time homebuyers who close the purchase of a primary residence by the end of June. “You have got some of the best housing affordability conditions in many markets that (buyers) have seen certainly in their lifetimes — and perhaps even their parents’ lifetimes,” says Mike Larson of Weiss Research. “If you are not encumbered by a previous home you are trying to sell, this is great for you.”

Jobs first. Many Americans are taking advantage of these conditions to become homeowners, with first-time homebuyers accounting for more than half of home sales in November. But as we learned during the housing bust, “because everybody’s doing it” is a terrible reason to buy property. Instead, would-be buyers must first determine whether it’s the right time for them. And that means they must take a critical look at their employment situation. Although the economy is showing signs of life, the national unemployment rate stood at 10% as the year began, and it is projected to move higher. Since a steady income stream is essential to homeownership, only those with sound job security should pursue a home purchase.

• MSN Money: 5 keys to finding housing bargains

Second, remember that all those headlines about the national housing market aren’t nearly as important as what’s going on in the area you are looking to buy into. The trajectory of home prices will vary a great deal from one place to the next. Home values in Tacoma, Wash., for example, are expected to increase more than 40% over the next five years, while prices in Atlantic City, N.J., are projected to fall more than 10%, according to Moody’s Economy.com. Markets with a diversified economic base of faster-growing job providers — like high-tech or business service firms — are in a good position to experience growth in employment, population and wages, says Celia Chen, senior director of housing economics at Moody’s Economy.com. Such factors will help stimulate housing demand and juice property values over the long term.

A market’s current pricing trends are important as well. Although the housing bubble popped more than three years ago, prices in some markets remain significantly higher than fundamentals suggest they should be. Homes in Asheville, N.C., and Portland, Ore., are more than 20% overvalued, according to IHS Global Insight. To determine if buying today makes financial sense in a given market, check out the local rental stock. “If you can find houses in that market that are renting for considerably less (than what you would pay each month to buy a comparable property), then you are in a marketplace where it still makes more sense to rent,” says real-estate analyst Jack McCabe.

As a Reno – Sparks real estate consultant I encourage all questions or comments on the Reno – Sparks real estate market or any of the articles I post.

RISMEDIA, February 26, 2010—(MCT)—Sales of new U.S. homes plunged 11.2% in January 2010 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, the lowest rate on record dating back to 1963, the Commerce Department recently reported.

The third-straight drop in sales on a month-to-month basis was unexpected. “The housing market remains very, very distressed,” wrote Dan Greenhaus, chief economist for Miller Tabak & Co.

“There may have been some weather-related issues playing havoc with the sales data but clearly, these results are extremely unnerving,” wrote Jennifer Lee, an economist for BMO Capital Markets. “There is nothing positive to glean from this report.”

U.S. stock markets fell after release of the report, which coincided with release of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the economy remains fragile and needs low interest rates for an extended period of time.

Data on sales for December 2009 were revised higher to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 348,000, up from 342,000 previously reported.

Sales of new homes are down 6.1% compared with January 2009’s 329,000 units, which was the previous record low. The number of homes for sale rose 0.4% to 234,000 in January. At the January sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell that inventory, up from 8.0 months in December and the highest monthly supply since May.

Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions, and large sampling and other statistical errors. In most months, the government isn’t sure whether sales rose or fell. The standard error in January for instance, was plus or minus 14%. The government says it can take up to five months to establish a statistically significant trend in sales. Over the last five months, sales have been on a 362,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, down from 382,000 in the five-month interval through December.

Sales had risen fairly steadily in the first half of 2009 before plateauing last fall. Seasonally adjusted sales have now fallen three months in a row.

With mortgage rates still very low and prices down, most analysts had concluded that the recent decline in sales was due to the impending expiration of the first-time home buyers’ credit in November.

As it happened, Congress extended the tax credit through June and expanded it to include repeat buyers. But the tax credit didn’t help sales in January. Sales of new homes are recorded once a sales contract is signed, not at closing. Some homes are sold before ground is broken on construction.

Details
Home builders had been slashing their inventory of unsold homes for more than a year to a 38-year low before January’s 1,000 increase. The number of homes for sale that are under construction fell to a record low of 100,000.

Builders have cut back on production of new homes, but they still face headwinds from unsold existing-homes as foreclosures continue to mount up. If a home isn’t sold before it’s finished, it’s taking a record 14.2 months to sell it after completion—a reflection of the mismatch between more expensively priced homes in the inventory and lower-priced homes that have been selling.

The median sales price of a new home sold in January was $203,500, down 2.4% compared with a year earlier. Cheaper homes were selling better than expensive ones: 47% of sales were for less than $200,000, up from 43% in December. Meanwhile, 38% of sales were for $200,000 to $400,000, down from 41% in December.

Sales were down in three of four regions: down 35% in the Northeast, down 12% in the West and down 10% in the South. January’s sales were up 2% in the Midwest, the government’s data showed.

(c) 2010, MarketWatch.com Inc.

Chance Gates does welcome any questions or comments on the Reno/Sparks real estate market or on any articles that may be posted.  Send your  emails  to  chance at ballard-company.com